“Not ready to judge” — when the app won’t give a verdict

Why your Outlook says "Not ready to judge"

Most of the time, the Outlook card on Home gives you a verdict: On track, or the month your money runs out. Sometimes it instead says Not ready to judge, in amber, with one specific sentence about what's missing and a Fix button.

That isn't an error, and nothing is broken. It means the app can see that something in your plan is incomplete enough to change the answer — so rather than show you a confident green "On track" built on figures it knows are wrong, it tells you what to fix first.

This matters because the run-out date is the one number people come here for. A wrong answer delivered confidently is worse than an honest "not yet".

The checks are deliberately few, and each one is either provable from your own data or a cost no retiree escapes. There are exactly four.

1. The plan has already run out of time

What you'll see: "Both people in this plan have already reached the life expectancy entered here (age 88 at the plan's start date), so there is no time left to project. Update the life expectancy under My Plan."

The projection runs from your plan start month until the longest-lived person reaches the life expectancy you entered. If everyone in the plan has already passed that age by the time the plan begins, there is nothing left to project — the forecast is a single month long, finds no shortfall, and would otherwise report a cheerful "On track" over a plan that is already over.

That isn't a weaker answer than usual. There is no answer, so this one is checked before all the others.

It usually means a life expectancy was typed in as an age you've since passed, or a plan start month was moved years forward. Reaching the entered age exactly at the plan start is fine — a one-month plan is still a plan.

How to clear it: open My Plan → Profile & assumptions and set Your life expectancy (age) (and your spouse's) to an age beyond your plan's start. It's entered in whole years — see Profile & assumptions.

2. Your plan spends far less than you really do

What you'll see: "Your plan assumes $4,200/mo of spending, but your imported transactions average $6,100/mo."

This one only appears if you've imported transactions, because it's the only case where the app can prove your figures are off — it's comparing your plan against your own bank data. It triggers when your planned spending is below 80% of your real trailing average.

A plan that spends a third less than you actually do will always look healthy. It isn't a forecast; it's a wish.

How to clear it: open the Spending tab, choose Compare, and work down Your plan vs. your real spending. Each category shows what your plan assumes next to what you actually spend and the difference. A category the plan has no line for can be added with one click; a line that exists you change under My Plan. You don't have to close every gap — you just have to get the total honest.

If the gap is real but temporary (you're deliberately cutting back in retirement), lower it on purpose rather than by omission: set the spending you actually intend, and the check clears once the plan is within reach of reality.

3. There's no healthcare cost in your plan

What you'll see: "No healthcare or health-insurance cost is in your plan — it's usually one of the largest expenses in retirement."

This appears once you're 50 or older and no expense line looks like healthcare. A retirement plan with no medical costs in it is fiction: even on Medicare there are premiums, supplements, dental, and out-of-pocket costs, and before 65 an unsubsidized marketplace policy can run well over $1,000 a month.

How to clear it: open My Plan → Expenses & debts and add a line with the category Healthcare or Health insurance. Health costs historically rise faster than general inflation, so set Cost over time → Rises at around 5%.

If you retire before 65, also see Marketplace health insurance before 65 — entering the full premium and turning on the credit is more accurate than guessing a net figure.

4. Taxes aren't modelled, but you hold a 401(k) or IRA

What you'll see: "Taxes aren't being modeled, so withdrawals from your 401(k)/IRA are being treated as tax-free."

Money in a traditional 401(k) or IRA has never been taxed. Every dollar you take out is ordinary income, and from age 73 (75 if you were born in 1960 or later) the IRS forces a minimum amount out whether you need it or not. A projection that ignores this overstates every single year.

How to clear it: open My Plan → Profile & assumptions and turn on Model income taxes, choosing your filing status. This is off by default on plans created before taxes were modelled, which is why an older plan can suddenly start showing this message.

Expect your run-out date to move earlier when you turn it on. That's the point — see Taxes & RMDs.

What it doesn't do

It doesn't hide anything. Your projection, charts, and month-by-month detail all still work, and you can read them while a gap is open. Only the one-word verdict is withheld.

Smaller issues — an uncategorized transaction, a debt with no payoff date — show up as alert pills below the Outlook card instead. Those are worth doing but won't change the answer enough to withhold it.

Once every gap is cleared

The Outlook card goes back to a plain verdict, and it means more than it did before: the figures behind it include what you really spend, the healthcare you will really pay for, and the tax you will really owe.

Then it's worth stress-testing — because a plan that works on average still has to survive bad markets, a long life, and a care event.

All of this is an educational estimate, not financial or tax advice.